Impact of range bar and Ergodic process on early price trend detection using evidence from USD/CNY currency

Abstract

This paper uses range bar and Ergodic Theory to study early price trends for USD/CNY currency in China from 2015 to 2019. The main results indicated that early price trend detection can be achieved within two standard deviations. During the range-bound trading period,sample showed that atleast 68% of frequency mean result suggested that range bar solved price trend formation. This paper is further analysed to obtain at least a 0.8 correlation coefficient sample suggested that Ergodic Theory prevented overpriced hedge trends. This paper intends to improve price trend detection earlier than trend following methodology. Therefore, the authorities shall consider implementing early price trend detection models to improve the liquidity of local currency.